2015-16 Demographic Report
The Davis Demographics report provides information for PUSD’s facility planning efforts. The purpose of this report is to identify and inform the District of trends occurring in the community, how trends may affect future student population, and to assist in illustrating facility adjustments that may be necessary to accommodate the potential student population shifts. The report is a snapshot only of current population based on data gathered in 2014. Population demographics change, funding opportunities change, District priorities can change, and, therefore, the projections will shift. This was the case in the 2015-16 academic year, where the trend line projecting a continued decrease in enrollment did not hold. This trend turned positive and PUSD remained flat when compared to the previous years actual enrollment. The shift was due in part to new academic programs and an increase in interdistrict enrollment.
Staff continues to locate new and more effective ways to monitor and increase enrollment by improving the choice program (we added a short-term waitlist after the second lottery set to expire in June), increasing marketing and outreach, enhancing the quality and accountability of programs, and building on programs that are attractive to PUSD families. While the trend for the 2016-17 academic year is projected to be down as indicated in the report, early analysis of the open enrollment actual registrations are 18% higher from the year over. This is likely attributed to new programs added that better align with the interests of students and parents. A full staff analysis of the 2016-17 open enrollment and registration process will be available in September 2016 which will be compared to Davis Demographic projections.
The Davis Demographics report was modified this year and now features an updated Executive Summary and geographic spatial maps that provide data on declining birth rates, a comparison of school capture rates in the San Gabriel Valley, mapping on educational opportunities in the PUSD catchment area, and tracking on interdistrict transfer rates. Staff also enlisted the input of expert Urban Planner and Demographer Dowell Meyers to advise on shifts he is seeing across California that could inform the work of PUSD. These efforts combined with the recent findings from the 2016 Parent Survey, set to be released on May 27, 2016, and PUSD’s 5-Year Educational Master Plan will help guide staff in making the needed changes to improve enrollment in PUSD.